TAM, SAM, SOM - Breaking Down the Retail Market Size

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Jason
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TAM, SAM, SOM - Breaking Down the Retail Market Size

Postby Jason » May 8th, 2017, 5:50 am

Hi Everyone,

Yes, yet another new guy here :D . Like some of us, I'm looking at WSR as a potential part-time gig. More specifically, a Tent location on Saturdays.

Since retail customers are what I'm targeting, I thought I might try to find a way to determine what I can reasonably expect setting at a tent location all day. Obviously, there are going to be variables that can't be accounted for, but from what I've read so far in the forum, it appears that 4 - 8 repairs per day is considered "good".

The question is: How much traffic do you really need to get those 4-8 repairs per day?

Here's the industry statistics and math I've come up with. But, I'd like to hear from any of the WSR veterans to see if you agree or disagree with what the numbers say.

* According to Hedges Company research, there are currently 261.8 million (cars & light trucks) in operation here in the US as of 2016.
* Delta's website says "There are over 248 million vehicles on the road today which puts the estimated number of vehicles with repairable windshield damage between 24 and 30 million" - this basically breaks down the number of "vehicles with repairable windshield damage", at any give time, to 9.7% - 12%
* There is a certain company that sell's "coaching" on the WSR biz, that says based on their research and other industry data, they estimate that only about "10% - 15% of the rock chips on the road are being repaired"

So here, we have the elements needed for a TAM, SAM, SOM market analysis (see attached pic for definitions).

I then broke these numbers down in an excel spreadsheet (2nd pic).

As you can see, I used the 261.8 million as the TAM, and then calculated at 5%, 7%, 9% and 10% as the "number of vehicles with repairable windshield damage" at any given point as the SAM. Then, I wanted to know how many of those were actually getting the repair done, so I broke that down again by 5%, 10%, and 15% (I refer to this as the "fix rate") - which gives us the SOM.

Now all that was left to do is figure out the TAM:SOM as a ratio (ie...How many cars does it take to get 1 repair?)

When it's all said and done, it looks like worst case, you'll need 200 cars for every 1 repair (10% SAM/5% fix rate). Best case, it looks like 200 cars will give you 3 repairs (10% SAM/15% fix rate).

Again, I'm sure if you set up near an interstate or there are a lot of gravel roads in your area, you're numbers and other variables would make this irrelevant. I was just trying to establish a benchmark. Maybe my numbers are off....maybe all the vets out there already know this.

I'm curious if anyone agrees/disagrees?
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Re: TAM, SAM, SOM - Breaking Down the Retail Market Size

Postby screenman » May 8th, 2017, 10:08 pm

To be honest there are I consider way to many variables, what I do know is that I never looked into anything like that when I started nearly 30 years ago, but boy have I been busy ever since. Can I ask, why retail? a fleet would give you a far more reliable source of income 12 months of the year.

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Re: TAM, SAM, SOM - Breaking Down the Retail Market Size

Postby Jason » May 9th, 2017, 5:30 pm

screenman wrote:To be honest there are I consider way to many variables, what I do know is that I never looked into anything like that when I started nearly 30 years ago, but boy have I been busy ever since. Can I ask, why retail? a fleet would give you a far more reliable source of income 12 months of the year.


Hi Screenman, thanks for the response. I'm probably over-analyzing it. I'm just looking for something to do on the weekends for extra spending money. Retail seems like it would make the most sense in my particular situation as it lends itself to just popping up a tent on a Sat or Sun (assuming you can find a location). I'm just looking for something quick and relatively easy - compared to going out and building up an account base. Maybe the effort is the same in either scenario?

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Re: TAM, SAM, SOM - Breaking Down the Retail Market Size

Postby screenman » May 10th, 2017, 10:10 pm

No need to overthink it, just go and do it. Make sure you get good training and do great repairs first though.

Jason
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Re: TAM, SAM, SOM - Breaking Down the Retail Market Size

Postby Jason » May 11th, 2017, 10:44 am

Just for ridiculous fun, I decided to run this tent location scenario out to both sides of the "what if" spectrum :)

In this scenario, we'll still assume that we are starting with a total potential market of 261,800,000 passenger cars & light trucks in operation right now in the USA (TAM = Total Addressable Market)

For our (SAM=Served Attainable Market....aka "How many cars & light trucks actually have windshield damage"), will use two extremes: (1%) and (25%). Both of these, of course, are unrealistic and the real number is likely somewhere in between. Either way, we have 26,180 (representing the 1%) and 16,362,500 (representing the 25%).

And, finally we get to the point where we actually see our (SOM = Served Obtainable Market/Target Market)....in layman's terms:

If only 1% of all the cars & light trucks have windshield damage, and of those, only 1% actually get the windshield repaired, the ratio is 10,000:1 (10,000 cars/trucks to get 1 repair).

Moving to the other end, if every day was like a unicorn fairyland, then let's assume 25% of all the cars & light trucks have windshield damage, and of those, 25% actually get the windshield repaired, the ratio is 16:1 (16 cars/trucks to get 1 repair).

I like unicorn fairylands! Anybody else?? :lol:

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Re: TAM, SAM, SOM - Breaking Down the Retail Market Size

Postby screenman » May 11th, 2017, 10:03 pm

One of my garage customers brought eleven cars last week, I fixed screens on 5 of them and dents on 6, the fairies were looking down on me kindly.

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Re: TAM, SAM, SOM - Breaking Down the Retail Market Size

Postby Jason » May 12th, 2017, 5:50 am

Screenman - that's WAAAAAAAAY past fairies and unicorns. You're on the Windshield Repair Gods level! :lol:

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Re: TAM, SAM, SOM - Breaking Down the Retail Market Size

Postby screenman » May 12th, 2017, 11:07 am

Takes a bit of effort to get on that level but the rewards are worth it.


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